Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Alex Oliveira
Tim Means
51%
49%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
23-12-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
34-17-1
W2
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 1
Oliveira: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Means: 17 sig / 1 TD
Alex Oliveira
Tim Means
35
Sig strikes landed
39
73
Sig strikes attempted
85
55
Total strikes landed
50
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.2
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
194s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
23-12-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
Blue corner
W2
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
34-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—