Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mike Pyle
Alex Garcia
45%
55%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
41
Age
Δ 12y
30
27-15-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
15-7
L1
Current streak
L1
15
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pyle: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Garcia: 14 sig / 1 TD
Mike Pyle
Alex Garcia
31
Sig strikes landed
28
63
Sig strikes attempted
65
41
Total strikes landed
46
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
51s
Control time
209s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike Pyle
"Quicksand"
27-15-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
Blue corner
L1
Alex Garcia
"The Dominican Nightmare"
15-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—