Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Louis Smolka
Ray Borg
58%
42%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
63"
26
Age
Δ 2y
23
17-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
13-6
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Smolka: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Borg: 21 sig / 4 TD
Louis Smolka
Ray Borg
33
Sig strikes landed
28
64
Sig strikes attempted
61
59
Total strikes landed
50
1.3
Takedowns landed
2.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
6.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
164s
Control time
331s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
Blue corner
L1
Ray Borg
"The Tazmexican Devil"
13-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—