Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Johny Hendricks
Neil Magny
33%
67%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 11"
80"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
18-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
31-16
L2
Current streak
L1
15
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hendricks: 18 sig / 6 TD ·
Magny: 50 sig / 1 TD
Johny Hendricks
Neil Magny
52
Sig strikes landed
62
107
Sig strikes attempted
130
77
Total strikes landed
81
2.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
5.5
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
300s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
Blue corner
L1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
31-16
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
15 fights · 11-4
Last 5
L
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—