Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
TJ Dillashaw
John Lineker
32%
68%
Why
67"
Reach
67"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
19-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
32-9
W1
Current streak
W6
12
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dillashaw: 71 sig / 5 TD ·
Lineker: 38 sig / 1 TD
TJ Dillashaw
John Lineker
74
Sig strikes landed
75
175
Sig strikes attempted
165
89
Total strikes landed
83
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.2
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
161s
Control time
8s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
TJ Dillashaw
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
Blue corner
W6
John Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
32-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—