🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Dominick Cruz vs Cody Garbrandt
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dominick Cruz
Cody Garbrandt
80%
20%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
25-4
Career record
Δ 17 pp
16-7
W5
Current streak
W5
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Cruz: 88 sig / 0 TD ·
Garbrandt: 68 sig / 1 TD
Dominick Cruz
Cody Garbrandt
62
Sig strikes landed
49
170
Sig strikes attempted
146
84
Total strikes landed
53
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.5
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
178s
Control time
16s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Dominick Cruz
"The Dominator"
25-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
Blue corner
W5
Cody Garbrandt
"No Love"
16-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—