Prelims1
Middleweight
Antonio Carlos Junior vs Marvin Vettori
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Antonio Carlos Junior
Marvin Vettori
51%
49%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
27
Age
Δ 4y
23
12-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
20-10-1
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Carlos Junior: 28 sig / 4 TD ·
Vettori: 29 sig / 1 TD
Antonio Carlos Junior
Marvin Vettori
12
Sig strikes landed
22
30
Sig strikes attempted
37
29
Total strikes landed
37
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
183s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
45%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
12-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
W1
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
20-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
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