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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Leslie Smith vs Irene Aldana

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson ·Golden 1 Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Leslie Smith
Irene Aldana
37% 63%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
34
Age
Δ 6y
29
L1
Current streak
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5
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Smith: 169 sig / 0 TD · Aldana: 108 sig / 1 TD
Leslie Smith
Irene Aldana
47
Sig strikes landed
47
106
Sig strikes attempted
105
67
Total strikes landed
73
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
91s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Leslie Smith

"The Peacemaker"
10-8-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
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W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
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L UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
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W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
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L UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
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Blue corner

Irene Aldana

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29