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Prelims2 Bantamweight

Eddie Wineland vs Takeya Mizugaki

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson ·Golden 1 Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Eddie Wineland
Takeya Mizugaki
50% 50%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
32
Age
Δ 0y
33
25-16-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
21-12-2
W1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Wineland: 9 sig / 0 TD · Mizugaki: 13 sig / 0 TD
Eddie Wineland
Takeya Mizugaki
49
Sig strikes landed
58
116
Sig strikes attempted
140
55
Total strikes landed
68
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
48s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Eddie Wineland

25-16-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
W UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
L UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
L1

Takeya Mizugaki

21-12-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
L UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
L UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—