Prelims1
Lightweight
Josh Emmett vs Scott Holtzman
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
·Golden 1 Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Josh Emmett
Scott Holtzman
62%
38%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
20-7
Career record
Δ 3 pp
15-6
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Emmett: 87 sig / 8 TD ·
Holtzman: 65 sig / 3 TD
Josh Emmett
Scott Holtzman
51
Sig strikes landed
54
123
Sig strikes attempted
131
69
Total strikes landed
72
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
61s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Josh Emmett
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
Blue corner
W1
Scott Holtzman
"Hot Sauce"
15-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—