Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Henrique da Silva vs Paul Craig
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
·Golden 1 Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Henrique da Silva
Paul Craig
65%
35%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
da Silva: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Craig: 31 sig / 1 TD
Henrique da Silva
Paul Craig
49
Sig strikes landed
38
90
Sig strikes attempted
96
67
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
144s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Henrique da Silva
"Frankenstein"
15-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
Blue corner
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29