Prelims1
Welterweight
Bryan Barberena vs Colby Covington
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
·Golden 1 Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Bryan Barberena
Colby Covington
42%
58%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
19-12
Career record
Δ 17 pp
18-5
W2
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barberena: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Covington: 76 sig / 12 TD
Bryan Barberena
Colby Covington
33
Sig strikes landed
37
64
Sig strikes attempted
84
59
Total strikes landed
56
0.4
Takedowns landed
3.8
0.3
Takedowns attempted
7.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
67s
Control time
332s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Bryan Barberena
"Bam Bam"
19-12
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
W2
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—