Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sage Northcutt
Mickey Gall
78%
22%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
21
Age
Δ 4y
25
12-2
Career record
Δ 32 pp
8-7
W1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Northcutt: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Gall: 9 sig / 2 TD
Sage Northcutt
Mickey Gall
16
Sig strikes landed
11
18
Sig strikes attempted
28
32
Total strikes landed
24
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sage Northcutt
"Super"
12-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
W2
Mickey Gall
8-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—