Main
Women's Strawweight
Paige VanZant vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
·Golden 1 Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paige VanZant
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
68%
32%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
62"
23
Age
Δ 8y
31
9-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
19-13
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
VanZant: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Waterson-Gomez: 12 sig / 1 TD
Paige VanZant
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
44
Sig strikes landed
48
99
Sig strikes attempted
94
59
Total strikes landed
68
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
141s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
53%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Paige VanZant
"12 Gauge"
9-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
Blue corner
W1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
19-13
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—