Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mitch Gagnon
Matthew Lopez
62%
38%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
12-6
Career record
Δ 0 pp
10-5
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gagnon: 31 sig / 1 TD ·
Lopez: 30 sig / 5 TD
Mitch Gagnon
Matthew Lopez
31
Sig strikes landed
20
51
Sig strikes attempted
53
50
Total strikes landed
31
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
155s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mitch Gagnon
12-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
L1
Matthew Lopez
10-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—