Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
John Makdessi
Lando Vannata
55%
45%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
19-9
Career record
Δ 16 pp
12-9-2
W1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Makdessi: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Vannata: 10 sig / 0 TD
John Makdessi
Lando Vannata
66
Sig strikes landed
55
125
Sig strikes attempted
130
73
Total strikes landed
62
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
52s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Makdessi
"The Bull"
19-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Lando Vannata
"Groovy"
12-9-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—