Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jason Saggo
Rustam Khabilov
29%
71%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
13-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
25-4
W2
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Saggo: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Khabilov: 42 sig / 4 TD
Jason Saggo
Rustam Khabilov
24
Sig strikes landed
26
60
Sig strikes attempted
68
43
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
2.1
3.5
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
156s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jason Saggo
13-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
Blue corner
W3
Rustam Khabilov
"Tiger"
25-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—