Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Zach Makovsky
Dustin Ortiz
43%
57%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
20-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
19-9
L2
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Makovsky: 21 sig / 4 TD ·
Ortiz: 34 sig / 4 TD
Zach Makovsky
Dustin Ortiz
33
Sig strikes landed
39
69
Sig strikes attempted
84
55
Total strikes landed
63
1.8
Takedowns landed
2.1
5.3
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
180s
Control time
228s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Zach Makovsky
"Fun Size"
20-9
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
Blue corner
L2
Dustin Ortiz
19-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—