Prelims1
Lightweight
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Drew Dober
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
·Scotiabank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Drew Dober
48%
52%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
12-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
30-15
W1
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Aubin-Mercier: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Dober: 24 sig / 0 TD
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Drew Dober
35
Sig strikes landed
30
71
Sig strikes attempted
78
54
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
159s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
12-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
Blue corner
W2
Drew Dober
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—