Back to UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov
Prelims1 Middleweight

Andrew Sanchez vs Trevor Smith

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov ·Times Union Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Andrew Sanchez
Trevor Smith
76% 24%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
29
Age
Δ 7y
36
14-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-10
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sanchez: 74 sig / 0 TD · Smith: 61 sig / 0 TD
Andrew Sanchez
Trevor Smith
19
Sig strikes landed
26
34
Sig strikes attempted
42
43
Total strikes landed
50
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
160s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
29%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Andrew Sanchez

"El Dirte"
14-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
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Blue corner
W2

Trevor Smith

"Hot Sauce"
16-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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W The Ultimate Fighter: American …
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L UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
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W UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
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L UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
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