Main
Flyweight
Brandon Moreno vs Ryan Benoit
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brandon Moreno
Ryan Benoit
86%
14%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
23
Age
Δ 4y
27
24-10-2
Career record
Δ 9 pp
11-8
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Moreno: 54 sig / 5 TD ·
Benoit: 23 sig / 0 TD
Brandon Moreno
Ryan Benoit
22
Sig strikes landed
10
38
Sig strikes attempted
29
32
Total strikes landed
24
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
181s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
24-10-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ryan Benoit
"Baby Face"
11-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—