Main
Women's Bantamweight
Sara McMann vs Alexis Davis
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Sara McMann
Alexis Davis
43%
57%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
14-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
22-11
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
McMann: 14 sig / 2 TD ·
Davis: 21 sig / 0 TD
Sara McMann
Alexis Davis
24
Sig strikes landed
33
70
Sig strikes attempted
74
51
Total strikes landed
73
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
188s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sara McMann
14-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
Blue corner
W1
Alexis Davis
22-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—