Prelims1
Lightweight
Dong Hyun Ma vs Brendan O'Reilly
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Dong Hyun Ma
Brendan O'Reilly
61%
39%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
16-12-3
Career record
Δ 8 pp
6-4
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ma: 21 sig / 4 TD ·
O'Reilly: 25 sig / 0 TD
Dong Hyun Ma
Brendan O'Reilly
41
Sig strikes landed
31
85
Sig strikes attempted
73
68
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
146s
Control time
205s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Dong Hyun Ma
"Maestro"
16-12-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
Blue corner
L1
Brendan O'Reilly
"Badger"
6-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—