Main
Welterweight
Jake Ellenberger vs Jorge Masvidal
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jake Ellenberger
Jorge Masvidal
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
32-15
Career record
Δ 0 pp
36-17
W1
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ellenberger: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Masvidal: 44 sig / 0 TD
Jake Ellenberger
Jorge Masvidal
33
Sig strikes landed
48
81
Sig strikes attempted
86
44
Total strikes landed
67
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
119s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
32-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W1
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—