Prelims2
Middleweight
Elvis Mutapcic vs Anthony Smith
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Elvis Mutapcic
Anthony Smith
33%
67%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
15-6-2
Career record
Δ 3 pp
38-23
D1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Mutapcic: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Smith: 48 sig / 0 TD
Elvis Mutapcic
Anthony Smith
39
Sig strikes landed
46
79
Sig strikes attempted
103
55
Total strikes landed
57
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
121s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Elvis Mutapcic
"The King"
15-6-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 2
D
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
Blue corner
L1
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
38-23
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—