Back to UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson
Prelims1 Lightweight

Damien Brown vs Jon Tuck

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson ·Rod Laver Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Damien Brown
Jon Tuck
55% 45%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
18-12
Career record
Δ 3 pp
10-6
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Brown: 34 sig / 0 TD · Tuck: 39 sig / 0 TD
Damien Brown
Jon Tuck
35
Sig strikes landed
30
82
Sig strikes attempted
71
45
Total strikes landed
44
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
99s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Damien Brown

"Beatdown"
18-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
Blue corner
L1

Jon Tuck

"Super Saiyan"
10-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
L UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—