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Prelims1 Middleweight

Daniel Kelly vs Chris Camozzi

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Daniel Kelly
Chris Camozzi
38% 62%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
39
Age
Δ 9y
30
14-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
24-14
W2
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
17

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kelly: 39 sig / 4 TD · Camozzi: 56 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Kelly
Chris Camozzi
38
Sig strikes landed
51
86
Sig strikes attempted
105
53
Total strikes landed
65
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
159s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Daniel Kelly

14-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database 5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
W UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
L UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
W UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
W UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
Blue corner
L1

Chris Camozzi

24-14
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 17 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
W UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
L UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold