Main
Lightweight
Jake Matthews vs Andrew Holbrook
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson
·Rod Laver Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Andrew Holbrook
86%
14%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
22
Age
Δ 8y
31
23-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
12-4
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Matthews: 22 sig / 3 TD ·
Holbrook: 30 sig / 2 TD
Jake Matthews
Andrew Holbrook
28
Sig strikes landed
19
50
Sig strikes attempted
38
50
Total strikes landed
38
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
258s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
23-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
Blue corner
L1
Andrew Holbrook
12-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—