Main
Middleweight
Robert Whittaker vs Derek Brunson
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson
·Rod Laver Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Robert Whittaker
Derek Brunson
75%
25%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
26
Age
Δ 7y
33
28-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
24-9
W5
Current streak
W5
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Whittaker: 33 sig / 0 TD ·
Brunson: 19 sig / 0 TD
Robert Whittaker
Derek Brunson
42
Sig strikes landed
27
105
Sig strikes attempted
93
50
Total strikes landed
41
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.3
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
6s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
28-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
Blue corner
W5
Derek Brunson
"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—