Main
Welterweight
Sergio Moraes vs Zak Ottow
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Sergio Moraes
Zak Ottow
49%
51%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
14-6-2
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-7
D1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Moraes: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
Ottow: 44 sig / 0 TD
Sergio Moraes
Zak Ottow
41
Sig strikes landed
43
102
Sig strikes attempted
109
48
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
115s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
14-6-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-1
Last 5
D
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner
W1
Zak Ottow
"The Barbarian"
18-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—