Prelims1
Middleweight
Cezar Ferreira vs Jack Hermansson
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cezar Ferreira
Jack Hermansson
27%
73%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
32
Age
Δ 3y
28
14-8
Career record
Δ 8 pp
25-10
W2
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Ferreira: 10 sig / 1 TD ·
Hermansson: 14 sig / 0 TD
Cezar Ferreira
Jack Hermansson
32
Sig strikes landed
25
71
Sig strikes attempted
51
50
Total strikes landed
51
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.5
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
154s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Cezar Ferreira
"Mutante"
14-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jack Hermansson
"The Joker"
25-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—