Main
Welterweight
Warlley Alves vs Kamaru Usman
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Warlley Alves
Kamaru Usman
32%
68%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
15-9
Career record
Δ 22 pp
22-4
L1
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alves: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Usman: 71 sig / 1 TD
Warlley Alves
Kamaru Usman
21
Sig strikes landed
45
46
Sig strikes attempted
87
37
Total strikes landed
63
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Warlley Alves
15-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
W3
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—