Main
Bantamweight
Thomas Almeida vs Albert Morales
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thomas Almeida
Albert Morales
84%
16%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
25
Age
Δ 0y
26
22-6
Career record
Δ 25 pp
7-4-2
L1
Current streak
D1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Almeida: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Morales: 18 sig / 1 TD
Thomas Almeida
Albert Morales
48
Sig strikes landed
33
102
Sig strikes attempted
85
61
Total strikes landed
33
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
87s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thomas Almeida
"Thominhas"
22-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
Blue corner
D1
Albert Morales
"The Warrior"
7-4-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Last 1
D
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—