Main
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Bader vs Rogerio Nogueira
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Bader
Rogerio Nogueira
79%
21%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
34
Age
Δ 7y
40
24-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
24-10
W1
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Bader: 86 sig / 5 TD ·
Nogueira: 3 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Bader
Rogerio Nogueira
35
Sig strikes landed
20
85
Sig strikes attempted
62
57
Total strikes landed
31
1.8
Takedowns landed
-0.1
4.5
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
235s
Control time
2s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
24-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
Blue corner
W1
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
24-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—