Main
Women's Strawweight
Claudia Gadelha vs Cortney Casey
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Claudia Gadelha
Cortney Casey
86%
14%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
18-6
Career record
Δ 23 pp
11-10
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gadelha: 34 sig / 6 TD ·
Casey: 22 sig / 0 TD
Claudia Gadelha
Cortney Casey
60
Sig strikes landed
56
131
Sig strikes attempted
130
100
Total strikes landed
79
3.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
355s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Claudia Gadelha
"Claudinha"
18-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
Blue corner
W2
Cortney Casey
"Cast Iron"
11-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—