Main
Middleweight
Thales Leites vs Krzysztof Jotko
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Thales Leites
Krzysztof Jotko
53%
47%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
35
Age
Δ 8y
27
29-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
25-6
W1
Current streak
W4
8
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Leites: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Jotko: 42 sig / 1 TD
Thales Leites
Krzysztof Jotko
26
Sig strikes landed
35
69
Sig strikes attempted
71
45
Total strikes landed
53
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
183s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Thales Leites
29-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
Blue corner
W4
Krzysztof Jotko
25-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—