Prelims2
Bantamweight
Pedro Munhoz vs Justin Scoggins
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Pedro Munhoz
Justin Scoggins
52%
48%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
30
Age
Δ 6y
25
21-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
12-5
W1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Munhoz: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Scoggins: 44 sig / 1 TD
Pedro Munhoz
Justin Scoggins
35
Sig strikes landed
46
85
Sig strikes attempted
95
52
Total strikes landed
60
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
110s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Pedro Munhoz
"The Young Punisher"
21-10
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
Blue corner
W2
Justin Scoggins
12-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—