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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Brett Johns vs Kwan Ho Kwak

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 ·The SSE Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Brett Johns
Kwan Ho Kwak
76% 24%
Why
25
Age
Δ 3y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johns: 49 sig / 11 TD · Ho Kwak: 53 sig / 0 TD
Brett Johns
Kwan Ho Kwak
41
Sig strikes landed
33
82
Sig strikes attempted
70
60
Total strikes landed
45
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
164s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Brett Johns

"The Pikey"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Kwan Ho Kwak

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Stance
Switch
Age
27