Prelims1
Flyweight
Kyoji Horiguchi vs Ali Bagautinov
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2
·The SSE Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kyoji Horiguchi
Ali Bagautinov
93%
7%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
37-5
Career record
Δ 15 pp
16-6
W2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Horiguchi: 55 sig / 4 TD ·
Bagautinov: 36 sig / 2 TD
Kyoji Horiguchi
Ali Bagautinov
62
Sig strikes landed
45
134
Sig strikes attempted
123
81
Total strikes landed
67
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.0
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
136s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Kyoji Horiguchi
"Karate Kid"
37-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
L
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
Blue corner
W1
Ali Bagautinov
"Puncher"
16-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
L
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—