Prelims1
Lightweight
Kevin Lee vs Magomed Mustafaev
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2
·The SSE Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Lee
Magomed Mustafaev
68%
32%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
19-8
Career record
Δ 9 pp
15-4
W2
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Lee: 20 sig / 7 TD ·
Mustafaev: 20 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Lee
Magomed Mustafaev
31
Sig strikes landed
28
71
Sig strikes attempted
70
47
Total strikes landed
39
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
144s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
Blue corner
W2
Magomed Mustafaev
"The Sniper"
15-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—