Prelims1
Welterweight
Zak Cummings vs Alexander Yakovlev
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2
·The SSE Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Zak Cummings
Alexander Yakovlev
73%
27%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
32
Age
32
25-8
Career record
Δ 9 pp
24-11-1
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Cummings: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Yakovlev: 18 sig / 1 TD
Zak Cummings
Alexander Yakovlev
26
Sig strikes landed
30
71
Sig strikes attempted
77
45
Total strikes landed
38
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
152s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Zak Cummings
25-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
Blue corner
L1
Alexander Yakovlev
"Russian Thunder"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—