Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ross Pearson
Stevie Ray
25%
75%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
20-17
Career record
Δ 16 pp
23-10
L2
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pearson: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Ray: 49 sig / 1 TD
Ross Pearson
Stevie Ray
38
Sig strikes landed
45
84
Sig strikes attempted
109
42
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
60s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Ross Pearson
"The Real Deal"
20-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
19 fights · 9-9
Last 5
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Stevie Ray
"Braveheart"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—