Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gegard Mousasi
Uriah Hall
97%
3%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
43-6-2
Career record
Δ 24 pp
18-12
W3
Current streak
L2
10
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mousasi: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Hall: 12 sig / 0 TD
Gegard Mousasi
Uriah Hall
44
Sig strikes landed
27
89
Sig strikes attempted
65
59
Total strikes landed
32
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
170s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Gegard Mousasi
43-6-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
Blue corner
L2
Uriah Hall
"Prime Time"
18-12
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—