Prelims1
Lightweight
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Michael Johnson
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Michael Johnson
95%
5%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
30-0
Career record
Δ 43 pp
26-20
W7
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Nurmagomedov: 94 sig / 2 TD ·
Johnson: 19 sig / 0 TD
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Michael Johnson
63
Sig strikes landed
32
116
Sig strikes attempted
105
109
Total strikes landed
43
3.4
Takedowns landed
0.1
9.2
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
391s
Control time
-13s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
30-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
Blue corner
W1
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
26-20
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—