Prelims1
Featherweight
Frankie Edgar vs Jeremy Stephens
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Frankie Edgar
Jeremy Stephens
68%
32%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
23-12-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
30-23
L1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Edgar: 40 sig / 5 TD ·
Stephens: 33 sig / 0 TD
Frankie Edgar
Jeremy Stephens
61
Sig strikes landed
60
140
Sig strikes attempted
147
82
Total strikes landed
72
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
216s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
23-12-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
30-23
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—