Prelims1
Middleweight
Rafael Natal vs Tim Boetsch
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Natal
Tim Boetsch
73%
27%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
21-10-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
22-13
L1
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Natal: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Boetsch: 14 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Natal
Tim Boetsch
46
Sig strikes landed
35
92
Sig strikes attempted
77
61
Total strikes landed
43
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
168s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
Blue corner
W1
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
22-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—