Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Weidman
Yoel Romero
70%
30%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
32
Age
Δ 7y
40
16-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
14-5
L1
Current streak
W7
10
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Weidman: 12 sig / 1 TD ·
Romero: 18 sig / 2 TD
Chris Weidman
Yoel Romero
41
Sig strikes landed
42
83
Sig strikes attempted
76
50
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
120s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
16-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 9-1
Last 5
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
Blue corner
W7
Yoel Romero
"Soldier of God"
14-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—