🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Strawweight
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
77%
23%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
17-5
Career record
Δ 14 pp
17-10
W6
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Jedrzejczyk: 171 sig / 1 TD ·
Kowalkiewicz: 50 sig / 0 TD
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
143
Sig strikes landed
77
288
Sig strikes attempted
237
154
Total strikes landed
96
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
96s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
83%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
17-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
W3
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
17-10
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—