Main
Women's Bantamweight
Miesha Tate vs Raquel Pennington
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Miesha Tate
Raquel Pennington
62%
38%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
20-11
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-10
L1
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tate: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Pennington: 43 sig / 1 TD
Miesha Tate
Raquel Pennington
35
Sig strikes landed
45
80
Sig strikes attempted
87
68
Total strikes landed
71
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
212s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Miesha Tate
"Cupcake"
20-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
Blue corner
W3
Raquel Pennington
"Rocky"
17-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—