Prelims2
Catch Weight
Jim Miller vs Thiago Alves
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Thiago Alves
78%
22%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
40-19
Career record
Δ 9 pp
23-16
W2
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Miller: 28 sig / 4 TD ·
Alves: 36 sig / 0 TD
Jim Miller
Thiago Alves
36
Sig strikes landed
44
91
Sig strikes attempted
103
42
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.1
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jim Miller
"A-10"
40-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
19 fights · 12-6
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
Blue corner
L1
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—